Through much of my career, the energy sector has moved moderately, and at times even slowly, to change. But now that change is coming faster and faster and from nearly all parts of the energy sector. In my view, we've moved from the pregame stage into the first quarter of this transition game, yet myths on silver bullet transition solutions persist and clutter the debate.

My name is Bob Orr. I'm a partner with Oliver Wyman in Houston, the energy capital of the world. My focus is on building new energy and renewable energy businesses, especially in transportation fuels. I've been working with energy clients on commercial and market strategies in downstream energy and fuels for nearly two decades, and I've been really fortunate to work with great clients across the globe.

I'd like to talk about a few myths, or near myths, that I hear and give you my perspective on reality.

Myth number one — the transition to electric vehicles will solve the decarbonization of the transportation sector.

The reality is EVs will help solve passenger car decarbonization only if they're being charged with renewable power. But passenger cars produce less than one half of all greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector, and we still have a massive amount of charging infrastructure to build, and then we have to convince all the drivers to switch over to EVs.

But electric vehicles are a long, long distance away, if ever, from addressing decarbonization in the commercial transport sectors. By that I mean long-haul trucking, air travel, maritime shipping. These sectors make up the other half of transportation emissions and will be much harder to electrify given their performance requirements and their travel distance requirements. While some technology is developing, it's going to be a decade away for trucking and much further, if at all, for air travel.

Myth number two — hydrogen will save the rest of the transport sectors.

Certainly, the Inflation Reduction Act is going to drive a step function change in green hydrogen development in the US. New projects are being announced almost weekly but getting hydrogen into the transportation will require massive infrastructure and vehicle changes. We do expect hydrogen to become prevalent in trucking, but not until the mid 2030s, and we don't see hydrogen as a substantial fuel for aviation even 20 to 30 years into the future.

Meanwhile, we have viable technologies and biofuels to help decarbonize these commercial transport sectors today. Renewable diesel is already helping trucking fleets reduce emissions by 80% today. In California, renewable diesel has already replaced 30% of fossil diesel and much more supplies on the way.

Sustainable aviation fuel can do the same to reduce emissions in air travel. Granted, it will take some time to ramp up supply and work through some of the cost challenges, but sustainable aviation fuel is really the only viable solution to decarbonize aviation.

Biofuels largely can use existing infrastructure, transportation, and storage. Since they're drop-in fuels, they work with existing fleets, trucks, airplanes, and ships.

Many talk about biofuels as just bridge solutions on the way to electrification and hydrogen. I think this bridge period will be a very long one indeed, as much as several decades.

I want to stress that biofuels give us an opportunity to decarbonize now as opposed to waiting.

We're working heavily with clients on biofuel strategies, business models, and supply chains. Our clients have tremendous opportunities to build new renewable energy value chains on top of, and integrated with, their existing fossil energy value chains, and it will take a combined renewables and fossil approach to help solve today's carbon challenges.

I feel excited and fortunate to be able to help clients in this transition. It's amazing to see our clients take used cooking oil from fast food kitchens and turn it into road diesel and aviation fuel that can lower carbon by 80% over fossil fuels. Really amazing stuff and it's here today.

I'm Bob Orr, and this has been my take on decarbonizing mobility.

This transcript has been edited for clarity

Through much of my career, the energy sector has moved moderately, and at times even slowly, to change. But now that change is coming faster and faster and from nearly all parts of the energy sector. In my view, we've moved from the pregame stage into the first quarter of this transition game, yet myths on silver bullet transition solutions persist and clutter the debate.

My name is Bob Orr. I'm a partner with Oliver Wyman in Houston, the energy capital of the world. My focus is on building new energy and renewable energy businesses, especially in transportation fuels. I've been working with energy clients on commercial and market strategies in downstream energy and fuels for nearly two decades, and I've been really fortunate to work with great clients across the globe.

I'd like to talk about a few myths, or near myths, that I hear and give you my perspective on reality.

Myth number one — the transition to electric vehicles will solve the decarbonization of the transportation sector.

The reality is EVs will help solve passenger car decarbonization only if they're being charged with renewable power. But passenger cars produce less than one half of all greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector, and we still have a massive amount of charging infrastructure to build, and then we have to convince all the drivers to switch over to EVs.

But electric vehicles are a long, long distance away, if ever, from addressing decarbonization in the commercial transport sectors. By that I mean long-haul trucking, air travel, maritime shipping. These sectors make up the other half of transportation emissions and will be much harder to electrify given their performance requirements and their travel distance requirements. While some technology is developing, it's going to be a decade away for trucking and much further, if at all, for air travel.

Myth number two — hydrogen will save the rest of the transport sectors.

Certainly, the Inflation Reduction Act is going to drive a step function change in green hydrogen development in the US. New projects are being announced almost weekly but getting hydrogen into the transportation will require massive infrastructure and vehicle changes. We do expect hydrogen to become prevalent in trucking, but not until the mid 2030s, and we don't see hydrogen as a substantial fuel for aviation even 20 to 30 years into the future.

Meanwhile, we have viable technologies and biofuels to help decarbonize these commercial transport sectors today. Renewable diesel is already helping trucking fleets reduce emissions by 80% today. In California, renewable diesel has already replaced 30% of fossil diesel and much more supplies on the way.

Sustainable aviation fuel can do the same to reduce emissions in air travel. Granted, it will take some time to ramp up supply and work through some of the cost challenges, but sustainable aviation fuel is really the only viable solution to decarbonize aviation.

Biofuels largely can use existing infrastructure, transportation, and storage. Since they're drop-in fuels, they work with existing fleets, trucks, airplanes, and ships.

Many talk about biofuels as just bridge solutions on the way to electrification and hydrogen. I think this bridge period will be a very long one indeed, as much as several decades.

I want to stress that biofuels give us an opportunity to decarbonize now as opposed to waiting.

We're working heavily with clients on biofuel strategies, business models, and supply chains. Our clients have tremendous opportunities to build new renewable energy value chains on top of, and integrated with, their existing fossil energy value chains, and it will take a combined renewables and fossil approach to help solve today's carbon challenges.

I feel excited and fortunate to be able to help clients in this transition. It's amazing to see our clients take used cooking oil from fast food kitchens and turn it into road diesel and aviation fuel that can lower carbon by 80% over fossil fuels. Really amazing stuff and it's here today.

I'm Bob Orr, and this has been my take on decarbonizing mobility.

This transcript has been edited for clarity