Transition to the New Monetary Order poses risks and opportunities. Here's how banks strategize for positive interest rates and manage depositors' expectations.

Watch more from the New Monetary Order Video Series and discover how financial institutions are adapting to the evolving monetary landscape.

Go back and really think about the core assumptions that you've been operating under. Because some of those will be valid under low for long, but not under other circumstances.

The new monetary order is the term we're using to talk about what's coming after low for long monetary policy. It's really important because Low for Long was powerful and lasted 12 full years. That heavily influenced the evolution of the financial sector, the business strategies people chose, their business models and the mindsets of executives and other stakeholders and humans are terrible at paradigm shifts. So we think there's still a lot of transition to go for the industry as we move from where we were under low for long to whatever this New Monetary Order is. Like any major transition, the move to the new monetary order brings risks and opportunities. On the risk side, we've already seen with Silicon Valley Bank that a business model that can be very well adapted to low for long can fail spectacularly going forward.

There are going to be risks from any number of places where the business model and the strategies are built around assumptions from that period, because it's hard to shake those ideas we developed. But there are also huge opportunities.

At the most basic level, the financial industry is not designed to make money at zero interest rates. You need to have significantly positive interest rates so you can make some spread between what you're paying, say your depositors, and what you're earning on loans. So, you've seen many banks around the world have been making record profits.

The problem is that as we move further in this transition, depositors and funders are going to start to want to be paid more and therefore these extraordinary margins are going to come in. I'd focus on at least three things as bank executives think about how to manage and run their organizations in this transition. The most basic one, just go back and really think about the core assumptions that you've been operating under. Because some of those will be valid under low for long, but not under other circumstances. Second thing is because the future is extremely hard to predict right now, you need to focus on scenario analysis. You need to think about what are the possible futures so that you can develop strategies that make sense and be prepared for what does come, and you can react more quickly as the true future reveals itself. And then the final thing is look for cheap optionality. That's partly financial strategy, if there's a way to protect yourself cheaply against the volatility, but it's also business strategies. You might, for example, want to put relatively small investments in a number of initiatives, ones that you can ramp up quickly. If it turns out those will pay off in the actual future that develops.

It's an interesting question as to what the interaction is between these new technologies and the New Monetary Order. To some extent, they're just separate things. So a lot of what we would want to do with technology, we'd have wanted to do under the old monetary order too. But there will be different challenges. For instance, it's clear now we need to understand depositors' behaviour much better.

Well, artificial intelligence machine learning may actually be one way of understanding better our depositor base, figuring out which depositors we actually want because they're stable and it will be willing to accept a more modest rate of interest on the deposits and which ones are very purely transactional or might spook very easily if there's a little bit of bad news.

Transition to the New Monetary Order poses risks and opportunities. Here's how banks strategize for positive interest rates and manage depositors' expectations.

Watch more from the New Monetary Order Video Series and discover how financial institutions are adapting to the evolving monetary landscape.

Go back and really think about the core assumptions that you've been operating under. Because some of those will be valid under low for long, but not under other circumstances.

The new monetary order is the term we're using to talk about what's coming after low for long monetary policy. It's really important because Low for Long was powerful and lasted 12 full years. That heavily influenced the evolution of the financial sector, the business strategies people chose, their business models and the mindsets of executives and other stakeholders and humans are terrible at paradigm shifts. So we think there's still a lot of transition to go for the industry as we move from where we were under low for long to whatever this New Monetary Order is. Like any major transition, the move to the new monetary order brings risks and opportunities. On the risk side, we've already seen with Silicon Valley Bank that a business model that can be very well adapted to low for long can fail spectacularly going forward.

There are going to be risks from any number of places where the business model and the strategies are built around assumptions from that period, because it's hard to shake those ideas we developed. But there are also huge opportunities.

At the most basic level, the financial industry is not designed to make money at zero interest rates. You need to have significantly positive interest rates so you can make some spread between what you're paying, say your depositors, and what you're earning on loans. So, you've seen many banks around the world have been making record profits.

The problem is that as we move further in this transition, depositors and funders are going to start to want to be paid more and therefore these extraordinary margins are going to come in. I'd focus on at least three things as bank executives think about how to manage and run their organizations in this transition. The most basic one, just go back and really think about the core assumptions that you've been operating under. Because some of those will be valid under low for long, but not under other circumstances. Second thing is because the future is extremely hard to predict right now, you need to focus on scenario analysis. You need to think about what are the possible futures so that you can develop strategies that make sense and be prepared for what does come, and you can react more quickly as the true future reveals itself. And then the final thing is look for cheap optionality. That's partly financial strategy, if there's a way to protect yourself cheaply against the volatility, but it's also business strategies. You might, for example, want to put relatively small investments in a number of initiatives, ones that you can ramp up quickly. If it turns out those will pay off in the actual future that develops.

It's an interesting question as to what the interaction is between these new technologies and the New Monetary Order. To some extent, they're just separate things. So a lot of what we would want to do with technology, we'd have wanted to do under the old monetary order too. But there will be different challenges. For instance, it's clear now we need to understand depositors' behaviour much better.

Well, artificial intelligence machine learning may actually be one way of understanding better our depositor base, figuring out which depositors we actually want because they're stable and it will be willing to accept a more modest rate of interest on the deposits and which ones are very purely transactional or might spook very easily if there's a little bit of bad news.